China’s population continued its steady decline in 2025, falling for the fourth consecutive year as the number of babies born dropped to a record low, according to official statistics from China’s China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The data showed the population fell by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion in 2025, marking a faster contraction than in the previous year.
The figures released on Monday pushed China’s birth rate down to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, one of the lowest levels ever recorded in the country’s long history.
Demographers say the scale of the decline is striking. “Births in 2025 were roughly the same level as in 1738, when China’s population was only about 150 million,” said Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
At the same time, China’s death rate climbed to 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968, reflecting a rapidly ageing population and the growing strain on healthcare and social services.
China’s population has been shrinking since 2022, a turning point that has complicated Beijing’s efforts to boost domestic consumption and manage rising debt.
The demographic shift is being driven in large part by ageing. Official data showed that people aged 60 and above now account for about 23 percent of the total population.
By 2035, the number of over-60s is projected to reach 400 million, roughly equal to the combined populations of the United States and Italy.
That means hundreds of millions of people are expected to leave the workforce at a time when pension systems are already under pressure.
In response, China has begun raising retirement ages. Men are now expected to work until 63 instead of 60, while women’s retirement ages have been increased to 58 from 55, a sensitive reform in a society long accustomed to earlier retirement.
The decline in births is also closely linked to changing social patterns. Marriages plunged by a fifth in 2024, the biggest drop on record, with just over 6.1 million couples registering marriages, down from 7.68 million the previous year. Marriages are widely seen as a leading indicator for future birth rates in China.
Demographers note that a decision in May 2025 to allow couples to marry anywhere in the country, rather than only in their place of residence, may provide a short-term boost.
Marriages rose 22.5 percent year-on-year to 1.61 million in the third quarter of 2025, putting China on track to halt an almost decade-long decline, though full-year data have yet to be released.
Authorities are also seeking to promote positive views on marriage and childbearing as they try to counter the long-term impact of the one-child policy, which was enforced from 1980 to 2015.
While the policy helped slow population growth and reduce poverty, it also reshaped family structures and contributed to today’s demographic imbalance.
Population trends have become a central issue in China’s economic strategy. Rapid urbanisation has made raising children more expensive, with millions moving from rural areas to cities. China’s urbanisation rate stood at 68 percent in 2025, up from about 43 percent in 2005.
Beijing is now spending heavily to encourage births. Policymakers face a potential cost of around 180 billion yuan to support families, including a national child subsidy introduced last year and a pledge that women will face no out-of-pocket expenses during pregnancy from 2026, with all medical costs fully reimbursed.
Despite these measures, China’s fertility rate remains among the lowest in the world, at around one birth per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1, raising questions about whether the demographic decline can be reversed.
